🚛 2025 U.S. Freight Market Forecast: Spot vs Contract Rates by Trailer Type

2. Spot Market Trends Through Q2 2025

The 2025 freight spot market is bouncing back after nearly two years of oversupply and weak rates. Carrier optimism is cautiously growing, especially in hot zones where load-to-truck ratios have finally tilted in drivers’ favor.

Based on data from DAT, ACT Research, RXO, and Truckstop, national spot rates for Q2 2025 showed signs of stabilization and growth across most equipment types:

• 🚛 Dry Van: $2.01 per mile — up 4.2% from Q1
• ❄️ Reefer: $2.34 per mile — up 7.9% QoQ
• 🏗️ Flatbed: $2.48 per mile — up 9.3% from Q1 2025

The Southeast and Midwest are seeing stronger-than-expected activity — particularly for flatbed and reefer loads. Meanwhile, dry van spot rates remain modest outside of e-commerce lanes or urgent auto parts freight.

A growing concern in Q2 was brokers quietly shifting contract loads to spot boards — artificially deflating rates. This highlights the importance of using real-time RPM tools like Lane Logix, DAT RateView, or Freightwaves TRAC before accepting loads.

3. Contract Freight Market in 2025

In contrast to the volatility of the spot market, the contract freight market in 2025 has remained steady — but at significantly compressed rates. Many shippers renewed their annual bids during the 2023–2024 downturn, locking carriers into long-term rates that now lag behind market recovery.

Industry analysts at CH Robinson, RXO, and ACT Research report that contract freight rates are averaging:

• 📦 Dry Van Contract: ~$2.16 per mile (down from $2.65 in early 2023)
• 🌡️ Reefer Contract: ~$2.49 per mile (flat YoY)
• 🔩 Flatbed Contract: ~$2.39 per mile (up 2.1% YoY)

Contract freight volume remains strong in sectors like retail, auto, and food distribution, especially for mid-size and large fleets with national contracts. However, these same shippers are actively monitoring spot prices — and quietly reassigning loads to save cost when market dips allow.

This puts smaller fleets and dispatchers in a tight position: holding contract lanes with razor-thin margins, while competing against mega-carriers who absorb temporary losses to maintain network balance.

4. Trailer Breakdown: Dry Van, Reefer & Flatbed in 2025

Trailer type plays a major role in profitability as we move through 2025. Load-to-truck ratios, rate per mile (RPM), and seasonal patterns vary drastically between dry vans, reefers, and flatbeds — and understanding these differences is key for carriers and dispatchers building efficient freight strategies.

5. Power‑Only Freight Snapshot

Power-only freight — where a carrier hauls a preloaded shipper trailer — continues to grow as large shippers seek flexibility without asset investment. In 2025, this market segment is offering mixed results. While high-volume lanes like Amazon, FedEx, and drop yard programs remain strong, smaller brokers often underpay or misrepresent trailer readiness.

According to Ready2Xecute, Loadsmart, and direct carrier feedback, the top-performing power-only lanes in 2025 are found in high-turn urban centers with consistent trailer pools. Drop-and-hook is ideal — but only when trailer dwell times are respected.

• 🔁 Top Lanes: Atlanta to Dallas, Joliet to Kansas City, Harrisburg to Allentown
• 📦 2025 RPM Range: $1.80 – $2.05 (higher with team or holiday freight)
• ⚠️ Common Risks: Missing trailer info, empty miles, broker double listings

6. Freight Forecast: Q3–Q4 2025 Outlook

As we enter the second half of the year, the 2025 freight market forecast points to cautious optimism. Analysts from DAT, ACT Research, and CH Robinson anticipate a gradual but meaningful rebound in spot rates, particularly for flatbed and reefer lanes. While overcapacity lingers, seasonal freight, produce cycles, and inventory replenishment are expected to push rates upward.

Contract freight will remain compressed, but shippers are beginning to revisit bid cycles earlier than usual. The upcoming Q3–Q4 surge may finally give mid-size carriers room to renegotiate.

7. Strategic Takeaways for Maximizing Profit in 2025

With freight rates starting to rebound and trailer-specific opportunities opening up, it’s critical to align your 2025 trucking strategy with market trends. Whether you’re booking loads directly or using a dispatch service, these actionable tactics can help you outperform the spot market and avoid common revenue traps.

8. Conclusion & What to Watch Moving Forward

The 2025 freight market forecast confirms what many experienced carriers already feel — the worst may be behind us, but volatility still lies ahead. Spot rates are climbing slowly, contract freight is inching back toward renegotiation zones, and regional shifts are starting to define the back half of the year.

Dry van and reefer carriers should prepare for seasonal spikes in Q4, while flatbed operators can continue to capitalize on infrastructure and construction cycles. Power-only operators must be extra vigilant about broker reliability and trailer readiness as this segment continues to expand.