Spot Market Outlook 2026 - Q1

For players across the freight industry, the spot market has long served as both a barometer of supply/demand dynamics and a strategic tool for managing capacity, costs, and operational flexibility. As the industry moves into 2026, the role of spot freight is evolving. What was once seen as a ‘for hire’ stock market on wheels is increasingly being leveraged as a deliberate component of diversified freight strategies.

The market continues to lean heavily on stability-driven freight strategies, even as volatility remains a consistent factor in freight. An outlook of mega carriers found 52%, reported relying on strategic or long-term contracts, signaling that shippers and brokers alike still prioritize predictable pricing and dependable capacity.[1]

At the same time, 30% of carriers said they primarily use the spot market, a substantial portion that reflects continued need for flexibility and pricing sensitivity from carriers. Elevated spot reliance often points to more transactional freight networks or organizations operating with tighter margins, where agility is more important than stability. This is a key indicator that mega carriers are readily seeing the stars align in the spot market. The culmination of stagnant rates for 4 consecutive years has led to a need for rate negotiation leverage driven by demand. Cycling this agility at a weekly level instead of a bid review quarterly.[1]

Overall, the data reflects a transitional market: technology is increasingly critical for securing freight efficiently, but many organizations continue to balance digital tools with traditional, relationship-based approaches. This highlights the continued value of relationship-driven strategies in freight, particularly for navigating complex lanes, negotiating rates, or managing specialized freight.

Looking ahead, the spot market will continue to serve multiple purposes across the freight ecosystem. The spot market is no longer just a reflection of supply and demand imbalances—it's a strategic tool that, when used thoughtfully, can drive competitive advantage in an uncertain freight environment.

The latest December reading for inventory levels came in at 35.1, signaling the fastest drawdown of goods in the history of the index, which began in late 2016.[2]

The timing of those tight inventory levels could be particularly bullish for trucking if the U.S. Supreme Court hands down a ruling soon that would overturn many of the Trump tariffs. The Supreme Court ruling will bring clarity either way and that could lead to a restocking of inventories that would benefit carriers.[3]

Recent crackdowns on immigrant and non-domiciled drivers may also be contributing to tightening conditions. California, a frequent target of Trump administration enforcement efforts, has seen more scrutiny than other states, suggesting regional political bias in regulatory actions.[4]

The 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs at the center of this fight represent just over 9% of California’s for-hire carrier base. I believe that number represents just under half the total increase in CDLs[4]

This isn’t really about 17,000 drivers anymore.

A comprehensive DOT audit revealed alarming statistics regarding non-domiciled CDLs. At least 200,000 such licenses have been issued nationwide, with particularly high concentrations in certain states. California emerged as a significant problem area, where the audit found that over 25% of non-domiciled CDLs were granted improperly.[4]

It is not a stretch to believe that at least half of the new capacity has come from non-domiciled CDL holders. We know that 200,000 CDLs were issued, but it is unclear how many of these are still active and currently driving over the road.

Regardless, the industry has suffered greatly from the surge of new truck drivers and the sudden influx of capacity. These new participants have contributed significantly to market oversupply conditions, resulting in the longest freight recession in history. The correlation between the issuance of these licenses and industry-wide disruption points to significant regulatory challenges that must be addressed to restore balance to the freight transportation sector.

J.B. Hunt’s analysis suggests that, between non-domiciled CDL restrictions and English language proficiency enforcement, we could see 214,000 to 437,000 drivers removed from the U.S. supply over the next two to three years. FMCSA estimates that 97% of the current 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders nationwide won’t be able to satisfy the new requirements under the September rule, assuming it survives legal challenge.[5][6]

Transport Futures economist Noël Perry puts the at-risk population even higher when accounting for undocumented drivers and new-hire restrictions: potentially 600,000 drivers, or 16% of the active workforce.[7]

Whether those numbers hold up or not, one thing is clear. The days of states running their CDL programs with what Duffy called “reckless disregard” for federal requirements are ending.[4]

MCSA didn’t withhold $160 million because of crash rates. It withheld funding because California admitted to issuing 17,000 licenses in violation of federal requirements and then refused to revoke them on the agreed timeline.[4]

The nuclear option remains on the table, and based on everything I’ve seen from Duffy over the past six months, I wouldn’t bet against him using it.

Over the past 18 months, long-haul demand — defined as loads moving more than 800 miles—has fallen about 30% year-over-year. Much of this decline is due to freight shifting toward rail and intermodal service. With many shippers pulling inventory forward and extending domestic delivery timelines, the urgency to move freight by truck has diminished.[8]

Intermodal currently offers near-record savings compared to trucking, making it an easy choice for shippers who can use it. But this shift has disrupted connectivity between regions, making trucking more regionalized and harder to maintain as a national network. As a result, the market has become more vulnerable to demand spikes in long-haul lanes.[8]

The national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) — which measures truckload demand — hit an all-time low for the month of October last week, registering a value of 9,311. This places the index roughly 19% lower than last year and 15% below 2023 for the same period.[1]

Normally, a collapse of this magnitude would trigger a corresponding drop in tender rejections and spot rates. However, nearly the opposite has occurred: rejection rates (OTRI) are higher than both 2023 and 2024 levels, while spot rates have moved erratically over the past two weeks but trended mostly upward. This suggests that capacity is leaving the market faster than demand is declining.[1]

Capacity crunch is the spark but consumer demand will be the fuel for the spot market rates to begin their stabilization at above inflationary standard rate increase. Holding steady at a baseline of $2.50-$3.00 RPM does not account for the inflation that should have been an included over the recession. However, if spot rates had simply matched the cumulative growth in CPI since March 2020 — before freight markets initially surged early in the pandemic — they would be significantly higher, closer to the equivalent of $3.50 per mile or more. That’s a substantial gap of roughly 27%.[9]

The market has been strengthened by getting rid of the lower quality operators that were willing to take rates lower than everyone else’s operating costs.

But circling back to earlier comments about capacity, if housing and manufacturing were to rebound, they would be doing so in a freight market that has already seen trucking capacity removed to a level that is currently supporting market conditions. And that would be another bullish factor.

The price movement brokers and carriers are experiencing today in the spot market is different from previous years, because this year the weather disruptions’ effects are being reinforced by a much higher level of tender rejections, one that has now exceeded the holiday peak at 13.42%.[1]

For reference, analysts at SONAR and FreightWaves typically consider tender rejection levels of 7-8% to be inflationary for spot rates; enterprise shippers typically want their tender compliance to exceed 95%. So, a level of 13% indicates serious problems with capacity and/or contract pricing, leading carriers to fall off shipper routing guides.[1]

This year’s scenario is particularly noteworthy because the baseline rejection rates are elevated, reflecting broader industry pressures. Factors such as driver shortages, regulatory changes, and economic recovery have contributed to a constrained environment where carriers are more selective about the tenders they accept.

While January 2024 and 2025 exhibited normal and expected downhill trends in rates post-holidays, the turbulence was not uniform; spikes correlated with weather events were more evident. But in the current tight market, a severe storm doesn’t just cause a ripple; it creates a wave.

Regions hit hardest by blizzards see localized capacity crunches that spill over nationally, as trucks are rerouted or delayed, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

Tender rejection rates—the share of contracted loads that carriers decline—jumped from 9.75% on January 21 to 12.19% on January 28. This spike occurred even as the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) had been slowly easing from its holiday peak.[1]

For context, the STRI averaged 5.35% from February through October last year and 4.5% over the same period in 2024. In other words, current tender rejection rates are elevated and signal mounting challenges for carriers trying to meet capacity commitments.[1]

Because tender rejections are less influenced by negotiation or sentiment, they offer a more objective measure of trucking market disruption. Historically, values above 8–9% are associated with tighter and more difficult market conditions.[1]

Spot rates—another key indicator of truckload market health, though more nuanced and emotionally driven—also moved higher. The National Truckload Index (NTI) rose nearly 3% over the past week. The more muted response in spot rates relative to rejection rates suggests that shippers have not yet been forced fully into the spot market, or that a peak sense of urgency has yet to emerge.[1]

When heightened urgency collides with slower operating speeds and reduced network efficiency, tender rejection and spot rates tend to rise sharply.

So, what does all this mean?

The prolonged freight recession has thinned the carrier base to the point where little buffer capacity remains. When combined with the severity of this storm and the persistence of extreme cold, a full market recovery may be delayed until March.

Looking ahead, as winter persists into February, the truckload market’s response to ongoing weather patterns will be telling. If rejection rates remain high, even moderate storms could sustain upward pressure on spot rates, potentially influencing contract negotiations in the coming bid season.

While weather is unpredictable, its interplay with market fundamentals is what truly drives outcomes. In a sector where margins are thin and asset utilization is everything, recognizing this synergy is key to strategic planning.

The data paints a picture of a market evolving under duress. Severe winter weather will always pose challenges, but in a capacity-constrained environment, its effects are no longer temporary spikes; they point to deeper problems. The market anticipates continued demand growth in 2026 amid “rapidly changing social conditions,” including AI integration and sustainable manufacturing.

As shippers and carriers adapt, high frequency freight market data will remain indispensable for navigating turbulence, ensuring that freight keeps moving.